This year's "steel demand" will continue to maintain high steel prices or low prices --Review of China's steel and raw materials market in 2021 and future outlook

China's steel industry in 2021
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the cumulative operating income of China's black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reached 9666.23 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year, and profits reached 424.09 billion yuan, an increase of 75.5% over the same period last year. The operating income of the black metal mining industry reached 582.07 billion yuan, an increase of 34.3% over the same period last year, and profits reached 77.45 billion yuan, an increase of 113.5% over the same period last year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, it is estimated that the total profits of China's steel industry in 2021 will exceed 460 billion yuan, a record high. At the same time, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the profits of China's black metal smelting and rolling processing industry tons of steel will exceed 411 yuan, and the profits of the steel industry tons of steel will exceed 440 yuan.
Steel production in 2021 decreased by about 3% year-on-year
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, China's cumulative pig iron production was 868.57 million tons, crude steel was 1.03279 million tons, and steel products was 1.33667 million tons, down 4.3%, 3.0%, and 0.6% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the year-on-year decrease in crude steel was the largest since 1982, revealing the effectiveness of the strict production suppression measures implemented by China since July 2021.
In addition, looking at the monthly daily crude steel production change curve since January 2015, the average daily crude steel production in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 2.47 million tons, lower than in 2018, and roughly converted to annual crude steel production at this level was about 910 million tons.
2021 steel prices break through
the top price range since 2016
In 2021, the prices of China's five steel varieties rose temporarily to reach a historically high range, and then fell under the relief of the country's macro-policies. In August and September, steel prices recovered again, and after October, prices fell again, showing an "M" pattern throughout the year. This is an extremely rare operating situation in recent years, and to some extent embodies the effect of the country's stable price guarantee policy for large-volume products. Looking
at the long-term price trends of China's five steel products and steel billets, the price level in 2021 has been in a relatively high position for nearly six years.
In terms of the price difference between screw steel and slabs, the level of about 500 yuan / ton also belongs to the high level in recent years. Looking at the price trends of screw steel and slabs, the price difference is narrowing and tends to decline linearly. Therefore, the judgment on the long-term trend of steel prices is likely to continue to operate in a narrow band downward in the future.