Searching for low rebound of steel products with super long-term special government bonds issued

On the 13th, steel prices rebounded after the good news of "issuing ultra-long-term bonds", and the night market was unstable. On the macro side, the US economy slowed more than expected in the first quarter, the employment market cooled, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut heated up. Domestically, the Politburo meeting at the end of April continues to stabilize market confidence. The increase in purchase restrictions in cities was completely lifted, and real estate policies were further relaxed. The speed of debt issuance is expected to increase in May, and the macro atmosphere remains favorable. On the industrial side, supply ends, blast furnace starts and average daily production of iron ore continued to increase. Electric furnace starts fell slightly. Thread production slightly decreased, and hot winding production slightly increased. Demand end, building materials spot transactions are weak, terminal financing issues are delayed, and overall demand is difficult to see a significant increase. The April manufacturing PMI is still in the expansionary zone, but the growth rate is declining, and the overall manufacturing industry still has a certain resilience, supporting the demand for plate materials. Overall, the macro sentiment continues to move in a good direction, but there is a lack of demand growth, the supply end is slightly reproduced, the inventory is slowing down, and rolled plate products have turned to inventory increase last week. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is still not prominent, the board is not easy to open up the downward space, and the high-level vibration is the main, but the later period is facing pressure. Strategically, the empty list will continue to hold for a while.
The fall in macro profits accelerated the issuance of government bonds, and the market mood recovered. The iron ore main contract 2409 on the 13th rose sharply, the increase was 2.42%, and it was contained to 888 yuan / ton, and the night board fluctuation became stronger, and the iron ore main contract of the new exchange showed the same movement. On the supply side, the shipment volume for this quarter continues to decline compared to the previous month, mainly due to the decline in Haoba shipment volume, so the current total shipment volume is at a high level compared to the same period of the year. From the near end, the port volume has fallen in this quarter and is now at a neutral level for the same period in history. Downstream demand recovery is slow, sparse port volume has recovered slightly compared to the previous month, port inventory has recovered, and is ranked high compared to the same period last year, and there is an overall resource surplus. This week's blast furnace operating rate and daily average production of iron water continue to recover, and iron ore demand is still supported, but the steel mill's warehouse replenishment power has weakened slightly. Overall, the steel mill's reproduction continues, and iron ore demand still has a certain support. However, there is a surplus in supply, high port inventory, steel end demand is still insufficient to increase, steel mill warehouse replenishment power has weakened, and iron ore is facing callback pressure. Strategically, empty single is still held.